The Actual Math on Renting vs. Buying in Denver for Three Different Budgets
At a 6.75% rate, buying almost never beats renting on a monthly cash-flow basis in Denver. Here's exactly how long you'd need to stay, and where HOA fees quietly wreck the calculation.
At a 6.75% rate, buying almost never beats renting on a monthly cash-flow basis in Denver. Here’s exactly how long you’d need to stay, and where HOA fees quietly wreck the calculation.
Let’s start with the number that reframes every other conversation about Denver housing right now: at a 6.75% mortgage rate, buying only beats renting on a pure monthly cash-flow basis at purchase prices below roughly $300,000. In the city of Denver proper, that price point has nearly vanished. The entry-level units you can find near that threshold in Aurora’s older neighborhoods are exceptions, and they move quickly.
This doesn’t mean buying is wrong. It means the question “is buying cheaper than renting right now in Denver?” has a short answer. Almost certainly not, month to month. The harder follow-up is the one that actually matters: does the long-term equity math hold up, in which neighborhoods, and how long do you have to stay before it does?
We ran those numbers at three price points using listing data pulled from REColorado and Zillow, with consistent assumptions across all three scenarios. Here’s what we found.
How We Built This Comparison
Most rent-vs.-buy calculators produce numbers you can’t really trust for Denver. They use national average property tax rates — the U.S. median is around 1.0–1.1% of market value; Denver County’s effective rate is closer to 0.5–0.6%. They don’t account for sub-HOA structures in master-planned communities like Central Park, where buyers pay both a community-wide fee and a sub-association fee on top of it. They ignore metro district mill levies that add meaningful cost to newer construction in southeast Aurora. And they rarely model the opportunity cost of the down payment sitting outside a brokerage account.
Our methodology uses a 6.75% rate assumption on a 30-year fixed mortgage. Verify the current rate with a Denver mortgage broker before you decide anything. We modeled a 10% down payment in all three cases, with PMI included where the loan balance triggers it — get a current PMI quote from a lender for your specific loan structure, because rates vary.
Monthly ownership cost includes PITI plus HOA fees where applicable, plus a 1% annual maintenance reserve prorated monthly. That reserve — roughly $367 per month on a $440,000 home — is the line item that disappears from most online calculators and reappears as a surprise repair bill. Every time. The down payment in each scenario is modeled as an alternative investment in a broad index fund at 7% annual return, included in the break-even calculation rather than buried in a footnote. Comparable rentals were pulled from Zillow and Apartments.com for units in the same neighborhood and square footage range, cross-referenced against active listings. Appreciation is modeled conservatively at 2–3% annually, below Denver’s historical average but consistent with where the market has tracked since the 2022 rate shock.
Colorado’s 2026 Property Tax Rules, in Plain English
Before the neighborhood numbers, you need to understand why 2026 is a specific and somewhat unusual moment in Colorado property taxation.
Colorado reassesses property values on a two-year cycle. The 2026 tax bills are based on June 2024 market data. Denver home prices peaked in 2022, pulled back through 2023, then stabilized and began modestly recovering in 2024. The June 2024 snapshot, in many neighborhoods, captures values that are meaningfully higher than 2022 assessment levels. Buyers who close in 2026 are inheriting a tax basis set near recent market peaks.
Some context: Colorado voters repealed the Gallagher Amendment in 2020, which had historically kept residential assessment rates low by tying them to commercial property ratios. Post-Gallagher, the legislature has been scrambling to prevent full-rate assessments from landing on homeowners all at once. Proposition HH failed in 2023. SB 238, passed in 2023, installed temporary caps on assessment rate increases. Those caps were designed as short-term relief, and their extension into the full 2026 cycle is not settled. Verify current cap status with the Denver Assessor’s office before closing.
In dollar terms: Denver County’s effective property tax rate is approximately 0.5–0.6% of market value, well below the national average. On a $440,000 purchase, that’s roughly $2,200–$2,640 annually, or $183–$220 per month. Lower than comparable homes in Texas or Illinois, yes. But not zero, and subject to upward pressure if legislative caps erode.
One additional cost layer that local coverage consistently underreports applies to Aurora. Newer developments in southeast Aurora — built in the last 15 years or so — often sit within metropolitan districts that levy their own mill taxes on top of the county rate to finance infrastructure that would otherwise have been a municipal responsibility. In some of these districts, this surcharge adds $50–$150 per month to the effective ownership cost. On a $410,000 home, that’s potentially $600–$1,800 per year that doesn’t appear in Denver County’s average effective rate and won’t show up in any online tax estimator. It’s also the kind of thing a seller’s agent won’t necessarily volunteer.
Three Neighborhoods, Three Budgets
Sunnyside, ~$440,000
Sunnyside — bounded roughly by I-70, Zuni Street, 44th Avenue, and Federal Boulevard — has become the city’s most accessible entry point for buyers who want a walkable urban neighborhood without paying LoHi prices. For $440,000, you’re getting a 1950s bungalow that needs cosmetic work, or a smaller infill townhome. Older single-family stock here often carries no HOA at all, which is a genuine financial advantage.
At $440,000 with 10% down, your loan amount is $396,000. Principal and interest at 6.75% runs approximately $2,568 per month. Property taxes at the 0.55% effective rate: roughly $202 per month. Homeowner’s insurance: approximately $120 per month. Budget $100–$200 per month for PMI at this loan size — confirm the actual rate with your lender. The 1% annual maintenance reserve: approximately $367 per month. HOA on older Sunnyside stock: $0–$50 per month, often nothing.
Total monthly ownership cost lands at approximately $3,357–$3,507 without PMI, or up to $3,707 with it. Comparable two-bedroom rentals in Sunnyside run $1,850–$2,300, with most clustering around $2,100–$2,200.
Monthly ownership premium over renting: approximately $1,100–$1,400. Break-even: 7–9 years. That’s the best in this analysis, driven by two factors — no HOA drag, and a relatively modest down payment of $44,000.
Central Park, ~$625,000 Townhome
Central Park, built on the former Stapleton airport site in northeast Denver, is where the HOA problem in Denver’s buy-vs.-rent math becomes impossible to ignore. Newer construction, good schools, well-maintained parks and infrastructure. The tradeoff is a fee structure baked into the community’s legal and physical architecture — and this is the scenario I keep coming back to, because the gap between what buyers expect and what they’re actually paying is widest here. For buyers weighing communities with layered fee structures, our moving & real estate coverage tracks these dynamics across the metro.
A $625,000 townhome is a realistic mid-tier purchase: three bedrooms, two-plus baths, attached garage, roughly 1,500–1,700 square feet. With 10% down, your loan amount is $562,500. Principal and interest at 6.75%: approximately $3,648 per month. Property taxes at 0.55%: approximately $286 per month. Homeowner’s insurance: approximately $150 per month. PMI: budget $100–$200 per month. Maintenance reserve at 1% annually: approximately $521 per month.
Then the HOA layers. The master community association (Central Park Community Association) charges approximately $50–$65 per month. The sub-association specific to your townhome — covering townhome-specific common areas and reserves — runs approximately $200–$450 per month depending on builder, vintage, and current reserve funding status.
Total monthly ownership cost: approximately $4,955–$5,320 without PMI, or up to $5,520 with it. A comparable three-bedroom townhome in Central Park rents for approximately $2,400–$2,700.
Monthly ownership premium: approximately $1,950–$2,200 against $2,700 rent. The combined HOA is consuming several thousand dollars per year that builds zero equity, zero principal, nothing. Break-even stretches to 10–14 years, and that wide range exists because HOA fee trajectory is genuinely unpredictable — most buyers underestimate how often these fees climb.
Aurora, ~$410,000 Single-Family Home
Aurora’s older east neighborhoods offer what is effectively the closest remaining option for affordable single-family homeownership in the Denver metro. For $410,000: a three-bedroom, one-or-two-bath home built in the 1970s–1990s on a full lot. You own the grass and the driveway. No sub-association meeting to attend, which sounds like a small thing until you’ve attended a sub-association meeting.
At 10% down, your loan amount is $369,000. Principal and interest at 6.75%: approximately $2,393 per month. Property taxes in Arapahoe County at an effective rate of approximately 0.57%: roughly $195 per month. Homeowner’s insurance: approximately $115 per month. PMI: budget $100–$200 per month. Maintenance reserve at 1% annually: approximately $342 per month. HOA on older Aurora stock: $0–$30, rarely more.
Total monthly ownership cost: approximately $3,045–$3,075 without PMI, or up to $3,275 with it. Comparable three-bedroom single-family homes in older Aurora rent for approximately $1,800–$2,200.
Monthly ownership premium: approximately $1,000–$1,200 against $1,900–$2,000 rent. Break-even: 6–8 years, the shortest in this comparison. Lower purchase price keeps both the loan balance and the maintenance reserve manageable, and no HOA eliminates the compounding drag.
One significant caveat. If you’re looking at newer construction in southeast Aurora — post-2005, roughly — you’re almost certainly in a metro district. That additional mill levy can add $50–$150 per month and push the break-even closer to the Sunnyside range. Before making an offer on any post-2005 Aurora construction, pull the specific metro district information from the Adams or Arapahoe County Assessor. It’s a public record, it’s parcel-specific, and it will change your math. Don’t skip this step.
The HOA Problem Deserves Its Own Section
A combined HOA fee of $250–$450 per month on a Central Park townhome represents several thousand dollars per year in mandatory expenses that build no equity, aren’t tax-deductible for most buyers, and don’t go away. They increase. Master community associations with significant infrastructure have cost pressures that reliably push fees higher — pools, parks, maintained streetscapes, the administrative overhead of managing thousands of units. A 3–4% annual increase is typical. A $350 per month fee today is closer to $500 per month by year ten.
None of that recurring cost reduces your principal. None of it accrues to your net worth. It’s a pure cost of access to the community.
An older Sunnyside bungalow with no HOA passes that same money into your maintenance budget or your pocket. You can defer a roof replacement in year seven if money is tight. You cannot defer your HOA payment.
The structural reason for this divergence is physical. Central Park’s master community infrastructure requires ongoing professional management and funded reserves. Sunnyside’s older street grid has no comparable shared infrastructure — nobody is billing the neighbors to maintain Zuni Street.
The same dynamic, under a different legal mechanism, applies to metro district levies in Aurora. Property tax levy rather than HOA invoice, but the economic effect is identical: a recurring cost above and beyond standard county taxes, not negotiable, not deferrable, not equity-building.
The Down Payment You Didn’t Invest
When you put 10% down on a $440,000 Sunnyside home, you write a check for $44,000. That money leaves your investment portfolio or your savings account and becomes illiquid equity in a single asset. The break-even model has to account for what that money would have done otherwise.
At 7% average annual return — a reasonable historical approximation for a total market index fund over decade-plus periods — $44,000 grows to approximately $86,000 over 10 years. That’s roughly $42,000 in growth you forgo by buying. For Central Park, the down payment is $62,500, which grows to approximately $123,000 — a $60,500 opportunity cost built into the purchase decision on day one. For Aurora, the down payment is $41,000, growing to approximately $80,700, a $39,700 opportunity cost.
These numbers belong in every break-even model. They explain why a buyer who sells after five years almost always comes out behind a disciplined renter-investor, even in a market with moderate appreciation.
Two honest caveats. Most renters don’t actually invest the monthly savings differential — the opportunity cost advantage exists on paper unless the money goes somewhere real. And buyers who stay long enough accumulate appreciation that compounds on the full asset value, not just their equity stake. That’s a form of leverage an index fund doesn’t replicate. Both things are true.
The Break-Even Table
| Neighborhood | Purchase Price | Monthly Ownership Premium vs. Renting | Appreciation Assumed | Estimated Break-Even |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunnyside | $440,000 | ~$1,100–$1,400/mo | 2–3% annually | 7–9 years |
| Central Park (townhome) | $625,000 | ~$1,950–$2,200/mo | 2–3% annually | 10–14 years |
| Aurora (older SFH) | $410,000 | ~$1,000–$1,200/mo | 2–3% annually | 6–8 years |
All scenarios assume 10% down, 6.75% 30-year fixed rate, PMI until 80% LTV (verify current rate with your lender), 1% annual maintenance reserve, Denver/Arapahoe County effective tax rate of approximately 0.55–0.57%, and opportunity cost modeled at 7% annual index-fund return. Break-even reflects the point at which net proceeds from sale — after commissions and closing costs — plus the reduction in monthly gap over time exceed the cumulative ownership premium paid plus the opportunity cost of the down payment. Central Park break-even assumes HOA fees hold flat at current levels, which is historically unlikely. If combined fees increase over the holding period, the break-even extends toward the high end of the range or beyond.
Who Should Buy Anyway — And When
The math above isn’t an argument against buying in Denver. It’s an argument for knowing what you’re actually buying into.
Households who plan to stay eight or more years and have the financial resilience to weather a rough maintenance year or a soft market are the ones for whom these numbers work. The buyers who regret purchasing in Denver are almost always the ones who sold in year four or five after a job change or a divorce, before the equity math had time to develop. Any Denver real estate agent who’s been around more than a decade can tell you their version of this story a dozen times over.
School-zone priority is a legitimate non-financial reason to buy that the math doesn’t fully capture. DSST in Central Park draws families who might otherwise rent in a neighboring suburb. That’s a reasonable decision. Aurora has distinct school district boundaries worth mapping carefully before you make an offer — the district line can have a measurable effect on comparable prices within the same zip code.
For buyers close to the qualifying line on the monthly premium, two programs materially change the entry cost. The Colorado Housing and Finance Authority (CHFA) offers down payment assistance for income-qualifying buyers — confirm current program terms, income limits, and assistance amounts at chfainfo.com, as these change. The Elevation Community Land Trust operates a smaller portfolio of below-market ownership opportunities in Denver aimed at lower-income buyers. Both have eligibility requirements and current waitlists. Verify current status directly with each organization.
On timing: Denver’s seasonal pricing pattern is real and worth using. Historically, homes listed October through February sell at 3–5% below peak spring pricing, with less competition and more seller flexibility on inspection contingencies. A buyer who can close in November rather than April on a $440,000 home might effectively purchase at $418,000–$428,000, which compresses the break-even by roughly a year. Thinner inventory in winter, but fewer buyers too. For most people that trade is worth making.
For renters making this decision: Denver’s just-cause eviction ordinance, adopted in 2023, provides modest but real stability protection. It doesn’t eliminate the risk of a landlord selling the property, but it reduces casual displacement. That’s meaningful for anyone choosing to stay a renter and wanting to know they have some standing in the lease. Understanding the full scope of Denver tenant rights can help renters evaluate that protection accurately before deciding whether to stay or buy.
Verify Before You Close
Several of the numbers in this piece move. Before you make a decision based on this analysis, pull these details from primary sources.
Call the Denver Assessor’s Office at denvergov.org/assessor and pull the specific mill levy for any property you’re under contract on. Don’t assume the county average applies to your parcel. Aurora properties in particular may carry metro district levies requiring a separate look-up through the Arapahoe or Adams County Assessor.
REColorado at recolorado.com has active listing comps, days on market, and price-per-square-foot by neighborhood. Your agent has full MLS access. Ask them to pull a six-month sold comp report for the specific block, not just the zip code.
Check CHFA at chfainfo.com for current down payment assistance program terms, income limits, and participating lenders.
Get a Loan Estimate from your mortgage broker — not a rate sheet. Ask specifically about the PMI rate for your loan structure, the removal timeline, and whether it drops off automatically or requires a formal appraisal request.
Temporary assessment rate caps installed by SB 238 were in place at publication time. Their extension into the full 2026 cycle requires further legislative action. Confirm current status before modeling your tax bill.
If you’re buying in the right neighborhood with the right holding horizon and clear eyes about the monthly premium you’re paying to get there, buying in Denver makes sense. If you’re in a three-to-five year window, renting and investing the difference is probably the stronger financial move — and there’s no shame in that math. The mistake isn’t choosing one or the other. It’s choosing without knowing the numbers. Now you have them.
